Churchill or Chamberlain?

Starmer's initial caution over the Iran War may not have been the lily-livered vacillation of which some of us would love to accuse him.....

President Trump’s sneer that Keir Starmer “is no Churchill” played to most people’s initial reaction at the weekend that the PM was being weak and vacillating, and a general embarrassment to our once proud Nation. “Either you support the war, in which case let Trump use our bases, or you don’t in which case risk the Special Relationship. But flip-flopping helps no-one.” I said so, but was upbraided by a Labour friend of mine for allowing party political prejudice to cloud my judgement on great and weighty affairs with huge consequences for the Globe. “At a time like this we must all support the Prime Minister, who is between a dovelike rock and a hawkish hard place.” She may be right.

I spent the week in Rome at a conference about the Arctic. I was particularly looking after a friend of mine who is a Professor in Moscow University, and whose courage in even attending a largely Russo-phobic event I greatly admire. I made a few remarks supporting good relations with ground level Russian scientists, academics, cultural people, despite my intense dislike for Putin and what he has done in Ukraine. Surely we can disagree on the grand geopolitics without cold-shouldering ordinary people who would be good friends and colleagues in peacetime? Scientific study of permafrost melt, for example, has largely ceased since 60% of all permafrost is in Siberia.

There was a big Chinese delegation at the conference too. They declare themselves to be a ‘near Arctic state’ despite it being 5000 miles from Shanghai to the North Pole. Again, we had good talks about underwater science labs, problems faced by reindeer herders, collapsing glaciers and the opening of the Northern Sea Route as the ice retreats. I may well dislike or distrust the Chinese regime, but why should that stop reasonable relations at a working level?

Churchill famously promoted ‘Jaw, Jaw, Jaw’ to prevent ‘War, War, War’. Perhaps reasonable civilised scientific and cultural intercourse with Russia or China at our lowly level could provide the foundations for higher level peace-making? What lies behind this war is not only decades long Iran/Israel hatred; it’s not even the longstanding rivalry between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran. Trump’s grand strategy is to show President Xi that America is still the greatest military power on earth, thereby dissuading China from invading Taiwan and safeguarding America’s supply of microchips.

So maybe Starmer was right to be cautious - at least initially. The risk of -perhaps accidental- escalation, with who knows what catastrophic consequences, is huge. I am glad that the South Cotswolds are now doing our bit by allowing Trump to use RAF Fairford for his stealth bombers. But I am also glad that we are not doing so with the full throated machismo, devil may care, attitude which male observers in particular would rather we adopted. This is not D-Day, nor the Battle of Britain. Starmer may not be a Churchill. But nor is he a Chamberlain.